release edition [050]

read time [8 minutes]

Welcome to The Multifamily Download, a weekly newsletter where I provide institutional insights to help you build an exceptional Multifamily career.

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Today at a Glance:

• Reflection: 5 Insights From 2025
• Themes: 6 to Watch in 2026
• Weekly Listen: Dave Ramsey

Reflection

It's hard to believe this is the final The Multifamily Download newsletter of 2025.

As I reflect on the past year, I am filled with both gratitude and enthusiasm.

Gratitude because of your willingness to consistently read this newsletter. Thank you for showing up and committing to read, reply, and share The Multifamily Download with others. I am grateful for your support!

Enthusiasm because of the vision that I have for this newsletter. While my vision may evolve over time, I have some exciting ideas in store for 2026 and I look forward to sharing them with you soon.

Thanks to you, I am thrilled to share that readers of The Multifamily Download have nearly tripled in 2025.

Providing you with insightful commentary each week is a responsibility that I do not take lightly.

Below are five of my lessons and observations from 2025 that came as a result of publishing this newsletter.

1. Consistency = Challenging

I missed two weekly newsletters this year; once during time off this summer, and once more recently when life got the best of me.

Missing two weeks, but only two weeks, reminded me that consistency is challenging.

In our world full of endless distractions, committing to something consistently over a longer period of time is both difficult and rare.

As you look ahead to 2026, I would challenge you to pick one or more things to commit to in the New Year.

In 12 months, you'll be glad you did.

2. Growth = Responsibility

When I think about each of you reading this newsletter, I think about a room full of that same number of people.

How would I prepare? What would I say, and why? If I was questioned on what I said, how would I respond? Can I defend what I'm sharing? If not, why not? Do I actually believe what I'm sharing?

As I shared above, I feel an immense responsibility to deliver quality insights to you every single week.

I do my best to be extremely thoughtful about what gets published, and I hope my intentionality is evident each week.

Pressure is a privilege, so thank you.

3. Writing = Clarity

If you're lacking clarity, write.

It sounds cheesy, but it works.

Writing this newsletter has benefited me personally, too, as publishing it has honed my skills for thinking clearly, speaking articulately, and writing succinctly.

To reinforce this observation, I've noticed that my peers that consistently write online have also developed a similar skillset, so I'm confident that writing is the common denominator.

If you're on the fence about publishing online in 2026 (i.e. writing on LinkedIn, posting videos on YouTube, publishing a Newsletter, etc.) then my short answer is simple: Go for it!

My long answer is not quite as simple, so let me know if I can help.

My calendar will be open through the holidays. Click here to schedule a call.

4. Opinions = Risky

I hold my breath anytime that I share my opinion about what is unfolding because nobody knows the future for certain.

I try to remind myself that this is my newsletter after all, but as The Multifamily Download has grown, I've realized that this is actually your newsletter, and that creates inherent pressure to "get it right" (whatever that means).

Point being, I do my best to embrace my true opinions and not dilute my message, because that's what you're here for, after all.

So, I'll do my best to keep sharing my opinions, even if they feel risky.

5. Multifamily = Multi-Variate

The final lesson that I'll share with you is a simple yet profound one. It's this:

Multifamily is complex, dynamic, and impossible to correlate to any singular data point or trend.

As such, I've learned to view this industry through a lens of first principles, whereby I'm constantly questioning narratives and asking myself, "Okay, if this is unequivocally true, then what else must also be true (or false) simultaneously?"

Multifamily markets and fundamentals are driven by many variables, and understanding how to distill these variables to make intelligent decisions is how value is created in this business.

What insights or lessons stuck with you from 2025?

How will you be improving or shifting focus in 2026?

P.S. in case you missed it, access my free Annual Review + Goal Setting template here.

Predictions

Before I share my 2026 predictions (which I will do in January), I thought it would be interesting to look back at some of my 2025 predictions that I published in January 2025.

Prediction No. 1: Sales Volume Down YoY

Here's what I wrote in The Multifamily Download: 002, titled "Interest Rates, My 2025 Predictions, & More". You can read it in the archive here.

Result: Miss.

While the sales volumes aren't final yet, 2025 sales volume is likely to exceed 2024.

I discounted how quickly the new administration's three-legged policy stool of (a) tax, (b) tariff, and (c) deregulation would cause Treasuries to rally.

These factors, combined with the broader market confidence that comes from $10T+ in foreign direct investment commitments to the U.S., led to a resilient Multifamily investment sales market in 2025 despite a challenging, though narrowing, bid-ask spread.

Prediction No. 2: Bifurcated Rent Growth

Result: Correct.

Many were surprised by these charts, but I wasn't.

Entering 2025, it was readily apparent to me that we'd see a strong recovery in some markets, and continued trepidation in others.

According to RealPage for the year-ending October, San Francisco saw positive rent growth of +7.4% YoY, whereas Austin saw negative rent growth of -8.1%.

Prediction No. 3: Pricing Bottom Not In Yet

Result: TBD

Price averages are not easy to identify due to varying vintages, market dynamics, and disclosure vs non-disclosure states.

However, I standby my early 2025 prediction above -- I think prices for Multifamily will surprise many to the downside in 2026 (and even into 2027).

The wall of maturities, downward pressures on NOI, and a flight to quality will leave many owners/operators of older and lower quality assets (of which there are many) in a tough spot that may result in forced sales and lower prices.

Summary

Although my above 2025 prediction results were a mixed bag, I'm glad I went on the record because now I can look back to evaluate how I was thinking, and why, so that I can improve going forward.

Lastly, and most notably because I'm an owner/operator, I'd much rather miss on sales volume than rent and pricing trends.

Real Estate is both local and hyper-local, so knowing what's happening on the ground is how money is made in this business.

2026

Now, let's shift focus to 2026.

Below are six themes that I see unfolding in the New Year.

(I plan to share more on these in the coming weeks).

1. Supply: Construction starts will surprise to the downside, and deliveries will surprise to the upside.

2. Demand: Although challenged in the first half of the year, I expect demand to strengthen into 2H 2026.

3. Rent Growth: Nearly all markets delivering >3% of stock in 2026 will have flat or negative rent growth, again.

4. Debt: Loan payoffs will be largely market, submarket, and sponsor dependent. It will be tough to predict which loans get extended (again) versus which ones will get foreclosed on in 2026.

5. Demographics: Multifamily in many of the COVID boom towns has struggled in 2025, partly due to over building and partly due to softening demand and flight to the Coasts. Watch the U-Haul migration report in early 2026, as it may indicate which markets are poised to rebound or suffer based on 2025 trends continuing.

6. Heavy Headlines: 2026 will mark the beginning of the end for several (if not many) prominent Multifamily names across the country. While I don't wish this fate upon anyone, there are consequences to paying the wrong price at the wrong time for the wrong property.

I'm sure I'll have additional insights or comments to the above in the weeks to come, but I'll stop there for today.

In closing, I'd like to issue you a challenge.

Challenge yourself to spend time reflecting on 2025 and forecasting for 2026.

What predictions do you see unfolding in 2026, and why?

Write them down and come back to them in 12 months.

You'll be glad you did!

Weekly Listen

This week's listen is yours to choose. In honor of my recent LinkedIn post, I'm sharing Dave Ramsey's channel so you can choose an episode that suits your season of life.

Love him or hate him, he's built an empire, and his advice has helped a lot of people over a long period of time.

Also, shoutout to my sister, who recently started working for Dave Ramsey.

You can choose an episode here.

Wrap Up

That's it for 2025. I hope you found The Multifamily Download insightful and enjoyable.

If so, consider sharing this link with a friend or colleague.

Your feedback is appreciated, so feel free to reply anytime.

Thanks for reading. See you in 2026!

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