release edition [025]

read time [8 minutes]

Welcome to The Multifamily Download, a weekly newsletter where I provide institutional insights to help you build an exceptional Multifamily career.

Today at a Glance:

• The Fed: Again?
• Career Selection: PSE
• Weekly Listen: 2-for-1

The Fed

Have you ever tried to drive a car with your foot on the gas and the brake at the same time?

It might work, but the performance will never be maximized, and eventually, things break.

To me, this analogy accurately encompasses today's tension between the U.S. economy and the Fed.

Does the U.S. economy appear to be stable according to the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and full employment? Sure, if data is chosen selectively.

But, as I've said throughout 2025, the sub-surface economic outlook is far more bleak than the Fed is letting on.

The Fed decided this week to maintain the Fed Funds Rate (FFR), but I'm still not convinced that this approach is the best one based on variables outside of their myopic focus on their dual mandate of price stability and full employment.

Rather than write a thousand words, I'm going to share some graphs and let you interpret them for yourself. Then, I'll share a few of my predictions.

(To look back on my early 2025 predictions, and my K-Economy analysis, check out TMD 004 here).

If you have questions or comments, let me know! I enjoy emailing back and forth with readers each week.

Single Family Housing

Economic Data

Federal Debt

Conclusion

Before I influence your opinion of the data and graphs above, what do you think?

Does the economy, based on what you've seen, heard, and read, merit a FFR of 4.33% in June of 2025?

As I wrote about just two weeks ago in TMD 023, the Fed has a dilemma on their hands.

Should they acknowledge that inflation is back to a healthy level, restart their rate cutting program, but risk potentially spooking the Bond market into thinking they're cutting proactively ahead of an impending or inevitable doom?

Or, should the Fed continue to hold rates until the latest Economic house of cards comes crashing down?

The following is my opinion. I welcome yours even if it differs from mine.

Prediction 1: Prices of single family homes will likely do some combination of two things:

1. Collapse. Prices will revert to the mean based on relative purchasing power in a given market.
2. Stagnate. Prices will flatline until wages catch up to support the payment required.

In either case, it seems as if a strong buyers market will emerge in the coming 12-24 months.

Prediction 2: M2 will grow quickly.

The American economy is in a debt trap, for both the Government and consumers. The only way to pay back dollar-denominated debt is to reduce the value of the previously borrowed dollars.

The caveat here will be that this inflationary pressure must result in negative real rates (aka interest rates below inflation) so that companies can borrow more dollars (counterintuitive, I know) to hire more people and spurn more economic growth such that there can be strong real wage growth (aka wages grow above inflation).

In short, wages must exceed inflation, and inflation must exceed interest rates if fiscal sustainability is going to be achieved.

Anything short of the above scenario will make outrunning both (a) the current fiscal deficits and (b) burdensome Federal debt nearly impossible. There is no way for the Government to increase tax rates or lower current expenses to correct this structural fiscal issue. The only feasible solution is to grow productivity, GDP, and the resulting tax revenues.

(Raising tax rates punishes successful capitalists, and in turn, disincentivizes innovation and domestic production. Raising tax rates is a bad strategy. Raising tax revenues is a good one).

Prediction 3: America has plenty of housing.

I'm still early in my research on this topic, but my current hunch is that America is over housed today.

Most (all?) publications, economists, and housing studies will report that America is under housed. But demographic trends are irrefutable, and reversing a negative trend is like stopping a mile long train -- very difficult and it takes time.

Fewer Americans are getting married today, and those that do are both (a) having fewer kids and (b) having kids later. This rapid decline in natural population growth, coupled with an aging wealthy cohort that owns multiple homes, will lead to far more housing inventory becoming available over the next 5, 10, or 15 years than most people currently realize.

Prediction 4: Real & Scarce Assets will outperform.

Multifamily Real Estate, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Foreign Currencies, and select Tech stocks will outperform in the next 3-5 years.

The U.S. Dollar is likely going to face stiffening headwinds, as will the U.S. Treasury market, which may result in lower Bond prices (and therefore higher yields), along with lower P/E ratios for U.S. Equities.

If (when?) U.S. Treasuries fall out of grace with global investors, there will be a new "flight to safety" in many of the assets mentioned above. Lots of variables here, and I hope I'm wrong, but it's beginning to seem like the writing is on the wall.

Career Selection

Choosing an optimal career can be difficult, especially in Real Estate.

Take it from me: I had 7 jobs in the first 8 years of my corporate career.

In my opinion, an optimal career is one that blends Passions, Skills, and Earning potential all into one. I call this the PSE framework, which I wrote about in 2024 and revisit below.

I'm obviously biased, but I will forever be a believer in trying, tasting, experimenting until you find 'your thing'.

For most, a career is 40+ hours per week, 48-50 weeks per year, over the course of 30+ years.

Your career might as well be enjoyable and fulfilling, right?

I'm not suggesting that selecting a career in Real Estate will be easy, but it can be fairly simple, so I hope you find this section helpful if you're still trying to find 'your thing' in the Real Estate industry.

1. Passions

If you had to work but weren't paid, what would you do?

This is a great way to pulse-check the type of work that might suit you best.

I recognize that it's fun to fantasize about getting rich while laying on a beach, but that's not reality for most people.

So, if you are most people, spend time finding work that feels like play. This is your proverbial golden ticket.

Questions to ask yourself:

• What do I enjoy doing?
• What do I learn about for fun?
• What feels like play to me that others call work?

Naval @naval What feels like play to you, but looks like work to others? 1:16 PM • Dec 10, 2020 829 Retweets 9752 Likes Read 2090 replies

​

2. Skills

Skill acquisition is the most valuable skill that you can possess. I realize this statement is somewhat meta, but it's true.

Learning how to learn is powerful because the upside can be infinite.

If you focus on increasing your skills forever then you'll never become obsolete, and you'll (most likely) get paid more and more as time goes on.

It's hard to continually learn and go backwards in your career.

Questions to ask yourself:

• What am I naturally good at?
• What do my friends know me for?
• Where can I learn what I need to learn?

Naval @naval Acquiring knowledge is easy, the hard part is knowing what to apply and when. That’s why all true learning is “on the job.” Life is lived in the arena. 5:24 PM • Jun 3, 2025 4100 Retweets 28471 Likes Read 581 replies

​

3. Earning Potential

This is last point because it's the most subjective. (I realize that at a certain point the correlation between earnings and overall fulfillment diverge).

Even so, it's important to be thoughtful about what type of lifestyle you want to live, what that will cost, which path(s) will allow you to get there, and which of those paths you'd like to choose based on your passions and skills.

Questions to ask yourself:

• What type of lifestyle do I desire?
• What sacrifices are likely required?
• Am I willing to make those sacrifices?

P.S. The Twitter thread below from Naval went mega-viral in 2018. It's worth reading.

Naval @naval How to Get Rich (without getting lucky): 1:23 AM • May 31, 2018 77335 Retweets 256497 Likes Read 9873 replies

​

Again, I recognize that finding your optimal Real Estate career is not easy, and that's okay.

Pursue it until you find it, because it is out there.

If you'd like support in finding your optimal career, The Career Compass will help.

If you have questions, feel free to reach out. I enjoy helping when I can.

Weekly Listen

This week is a 2-for-1 special, with two recent interviews from Bloomberg with well-respected institutional investors, Paul Tudor Jones and Jeffrey Gundlach.

Paul Tudor Jones is known as one of the pioneers of he modern-day hedge fund industry, having started Tudor Investment Corporation in 1980 and amassing a personal net worth of $8.1B (Forbes, 2024).

Jeffrey Gundlach appeared on the cover of Barron's in 2011 as "The New Bond King." In 2013, Institutional Investor named him "Money Manager of the Year." In 2012, 2015 and 2016, he was named one of "The Fifty Most Influential" in Bloomberg Markets.

If you'd like an institutional view on where markets are today, and where they may be headed, then you'll enjoy these two conversations.

Listen to the interviews here and here.

Wrap Up

That's it for this week. I hope you found this edition of The Multifamily Download insightful and enjoyable.

If so, would you consider sharing it with a friend or colleague?

Simply send them this link.

I always welcome your feedback. Reply and let me know what you'd like to see in the future.

Thanks for reading. See you next week!

Forwarded this email? Sign up here.

Join me on LinkedIn | Twitter | Website​